Boris' Loss Can Lead to Two Exit-Referenda


Until recently the upcoming general election in the United Kingdom wasn’t that exciting. Johnson was lumbering towards a win, and towards a Brexit too. Until recently, because the battle is heating up and Johnson’s main opponent, Jeremy Corbyn seems to be getting stronger by the day.

The 100K Poll

A very large poll was done by YouGov last week. Over 100.000 voters were asked what party they are voting for on December 12th. 43% confirmed they were going to vote for the Conservatives. That would give Boris Johnson 359 seats in Parliament. He needs 326 to have the majority, which seems to give him a comfortable lead at the moment. But is it really comfortable?

Find the full results of the poll here.

Other Polls

The YouGov poll wasn’t the only poll that was done, and looking at the average of all polls, it seems that the majority that Johnson has is getting smaller by the week. Only a few more percentage points and it will be difficult for Johnson to get his majority. Not so comfortable it seems.

For an overview of various polls, please see Mark Pack’s site here.

Time for a Coalition?

If Johnson doesn’t get the desired majority the faith of Brexit lays in the hands of whatever coalition gets formed that has the majority in Parliament. If that is the case, then a relatively small Scottish Party may become an important partner for Jeremy Corbyn. The SNP (Scottish Nationalist Party) is anti-Brexit and wants Scotland to remain in the EU.

Two Referenda?

If Jeremy Corbyn wins he will probably hold a new Brexit referendum. What the outcome of that referendum will be is far from clear at the moment. The current polls on Brexit have the vote equally divided between the Brexiteers and the Remainers.

If the Brexiteers win and the UK leave the EU, there may be another referendum that will be held. And this one will be in Scotland, where the Scottish people will vote on leaving the UK…

As the Guardian reports:

The Institute for Government has produced a report that says it would be unsustainable to deny a second independence referendum if Scots vote for parties supporting one. It says: “If the union is to survive, it must be because a majority of people in all four parts of the UK are persuaded that its survival is for the best, not because Westminster wields the power… to hold the nations… together against their will.”

Read the full article here.